Mayans and the End of the World

The world was going to end on the 23rd, then it was said probably 21st, and finally all the calculations were redone and it was confirmed that if it is not the 21st then most certainly it will be the 22nd.

Mayans and the End of the World – every new generation comes of age with a dooms day myth as if that is the sobering electric shock needed to be jolted out of the intoxication of one’s youth. For us it was the millennium-bug.

It is good to know a few physicists during these times because nothing is more comforting than scientific facts confirming that we are all doomed.

This article is not about the Mayan’s or their sorry attempt to get our attention, if they were any good they would have predicted their own downfall and at least made an honest attempt in avoiding it perhaps we should leave alone Mayans and the End of the World.

But then again maybe they were just like us and had special interest groups that kept shifting everyone’s focus to smoke screens till the day Chupacabra came and bit everyone giving them rabies.

Having said that, let’s give credit where it’s due, starting 2013 we will be reaching the 11-year peak of Sun Storm activity that produces solar flares. IT and Telecom equipment manufacturers are now issuing advisories that their equipment may not survive potent dose of radiation from the solar flare burst.

Last time this potent sun spot that produce mega solar flares fired towards the Earth it was in 1859 and it knocked out the entire telegraph network. A lot has changed since 1859.

There is high likely hood that a strong enough burst would severely disrupt electricity grids, telecommunication networks, and GPS systems making air and sea transportation almost impossible.

Worst case scenario a large enough flare can possibly damage the ozone, strip the Earth of its atmosphere, or simply scorch the Earth. It is unlikely that AR-11598 the region known for producing mega flares cause a big enough storm this time around – but you never know it is a game of Russian Roulette after all.

So if it the Mayans and the End of the World on 23rd did not happen on the 21st, 22nd, or 23rd why would it happen later?

Ah but it did happen, the sun unleashed a powerful solar flare late Oct. 22nd, releasing waves of radiation into space that caused a short radio blackout on Earth.

The flare erupted from the sunspot AR 11598 (short for Active Region 11598), and reached peak brightness at 10:22 p.m. CST, according to scientists working on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a space telescope that constantly monitors the sun with high-definition cameras. It ranked as an X1.8 solar flare, one of the strongest types of solar flares, according to the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) run by the National Weather Service.

Then there is always the age-old comet or asteroid scenario, and that is very serious indeed, in 2013 we are expecting C/2012 S1 (ISON) to create one of the most spectacular night-sky events in living memory. This particular comet is going to swing around the sun on a remarkably close trajectory. To scale it for better understanding, if the sun was the size of planet Earth the comet will get as close to the sun as the international space station is to Earth.

One of three things will probably happen, a – the comet would get sucked into the sun due to gravitational pull and close proximity, b – while swinging around the sun it’s heat would melt large chunks of ice on the comet making it as bright as a full moon in the night sky, or c – there by reducing its mass and changing its trajectory as it swings around setting it on a collision course to Earth.

According to NASA there are close to 959 Potentially Hazardous Asteroids in the inner solar systems, 5 of which are going to come too close to comfort and may pass between the Earth and the moon but not during 2013.

Here is a list of some of the known past close calls:

1. 1491: The comet of 1491 passed extremely close to Earth and referenced as the brightest object in the sky. Due to limitation of information available no one for sure knows how big this was.

2. 1770: Lexell’s Comet known for having passed closer to Earth than any other comet in recorded history. It is now considered lost.

3. 1908: Tunguska Event can probably be considered as one of the closest call of modern times or probably a direct impact. On June 30th 1908 at about 7:14am an explosion equivalent to 1,000 time Hiroshima Nagasaki happened 5KM above Earth’s surface. Due to its isolated place over Siberia and turbulent years of World War 1, Russian Revolution, and Civil War little documented records have survived. An expedition 20 years later revealed mass destruction for miles.

4. 1979: The Vela incident, an incident happening near the junction of the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Originally thought to be a low yield thermonuclear device test and then later categorized as an extra-terrestrial impact.

5. 2002: The Mediterranean Event when an object estimated to be 10 Meters in diameter collided with Earth exploding at an estimated force of 26 kilotons of TNT slighter greater than the Hiroshima explosion (16 kilotons) or Nagasaki (21 kilotons).

6. 2008: An asteroid over Sudan impacted the Earth and exploded known as the Sudan Event this was the first time that an impact was accurately predicted. Many fragments of the asteroids have been recovered however an impact site has not been identified.

7. 2009: A large fireball was observed in the skies near Bone, Indonesia on October 8, 2009. This was thought to be caused by an asteroid about 10 meters in diameter. The fireball contained an estimated energy of 50 kilotons of TNT, or about twice the Nagasaki atomic bomb. No injuries were reported.

Important thing to note most of the near misses and close calls were discovered less than a year of potential impact or close call dates. There may be stuff out there heading our way that we don’t even know of so I wouldn’t rule out Mayans and the End of the World theory entirely.

Future worry dates for the “known unknowns”

2019 – Approximately one in a million on a potential impact date of February 1, 2019; it is now known that on January 13, 2019, 2002 NT7 may safely pass the Earth.

2027 – AN 10 is going to be 1 Lunar Distance from Earth which quite close current estimates range from 1/2KM to 2KM in diameter enough to reduce Earths population by 2/3.

2036 – 99942 Apophis has a bit of a reputation for itself at 270 Meters it has enough potential to do substantial damage. Currently at odds of 1 in 43,000 it is not on a direct collision course with Earth but scheduled to pass through a gravitational keyhole where its trajectory could be changed slightly – enough for an April 2036 impact.

2065 – At 1100 Megatons this bad boy is scheduled to pass within 75,000 KM of Earth which is very close and has odds of 1 in 70,000 don’t make plans for May 2065.

2880 – And my favorite asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was lost after its discovery in 1950, since not enough observations were made to allow plotting of its orbit, and then rediscovered on December 31, 2000. The chance it will impact Earth on March 16, 2880, during its close approach has been estimated as 1 in 300. This chance of impact for such a large object is roughly 50% greater than that for all other such objects combined through 2880. It has a diameter of about a kilometer (0.6 miles).

So just because 2012 is over do not put your Mayans and the End of the World fears to rest. Who knows that we mis-calculated the 2 in the 2012 and the real Mayans and the End of the World date is somewhere in 2013.